However, according to ngo umbrella organization Climate Action Network, a broader problem is the lack of short-term targets that will help Canada meet its long-term emissions targets. Electricity: Most of Canada`s electricity comes from hydro, nuclear, natural gas and renewable sources, about seven per cent from coal. While electricity falls under provincial and territorial jurisdiction, the federal government requires all electricity suppliers to decarbonize at least partially by phasing out coal by 2030. Alberta says it will phase out all coal consumption by 2023 to meet demand for natural gas and renewable energy. Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia have equivalency agreements with the federal government that will allow them to reduce their coal consumption to zero by 2040. New Brunswick plans to phase out coal by 2030. Emissions in the electricity sector in 2030 come from natural gas and provinces that have equivalency agreements to continue using coal in the short term. Canada is committed to putting the country on track not only to meet, but also exceed, the Paris Agreement`s 2030 emissions target. The German government has also promised to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal Abreu describes as ambitious. “Especially for a government that doesn`t have a concrete plan to achieve its 10-year goal,” she said.
Canada states in its “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC) to the Paris Agreement that it would aim for a macroeconomic target of reducing emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, a target set for the first time by the Harper Government. He also hinted that he could use international loans to achieve his goal. Canada ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016. As part of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Combating Global Warming, about 190 parties to the agreement committed to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outlined the steps they would take to keep the rise in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Canada, the world`s 10th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2019, has committed to reducing its emissions from all sources by 30% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The challenge will be how it will do so, given its bad reputation for climate change and its unambitious reduction targets. When the federal government released its Carbon Neutrality Act, it also unveiled its strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, to “create jobs and support people, communities and the planet.” Based on the models and analyses used for its climate plan, Canada would not only meet but exceed its 2030 target. (Update 2019-10-22: After four years with a majority, Justin Trudeau`s Liberals are likely to form a minority government after a narrow victory over the Conservatives. After receiving the results, Trudeau told supporters that Canadians “voted for a progressive agenda and strong action on climate change.” It is likely that the New Democratic Party will help the Liberals form a government, and in his victory speech, left-wing party leader Jagmeet Singh promised “real and urgent action” on climate change. The Canadian Green Party also achieved its best result to date, regaining its two seats in British Columbia and another in New Brunswick.) To meet the revised target, Canada`s emissions must be reduced by an additional 109 tonnes by 2030.
The use of the modified LULUCF sector will contribute to this, as most of the remaining reductions come from three sectors: oil and gas, electricity and buildings. The accelerating pace of technological progress and the potential for federal governments to adopt more aggressive climate change policies mean that Canada could eventually meet or exceed its 2030 target. Canada already has a reputation for lagging behind on climate and having a somewhat ambitious climate goal. Satisfying 52% of NDCs by relying on the pandemic and changing the way LULUCF is calculated does not change this perception much. How Canada achieves the remaining percentages, whether through the pandemic or politics, will determine whether it can shake that reputation. In 2015, Canada and 194 other countries concluded the Paris Agreement. The aim of this agreement is to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to continue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Under the agreement, Canada committed to the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. In addition, the Government of Canada committed to implementing the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change while introducing existing and new measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to exceed Canada`s 2030 emissions reduction target and beginning work to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Five years later, the country`s climate policy is not only “inadequate” to achieve this goal, but could even contribute to warming of up to 3 degrees, according to the Climate Action Tracker. This warming would lead to high sea level rise, extreme weather events and a destabilized climate system. A recent flood of government proposals could put the country back on track to become a global leader in climate protection. However, this can only happen if the government aligns its efforts with concrete measures that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and phase out the use of fossil fuels through investments in renewable energy such as solar energy. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat in the Earth`s atmosphere, just as greenhouse glass keeps warm air inside. Human activity increases the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. When more heat is trapped, the temperature of the planet rises. Canada is committed to implementing the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change; Strengthen existing measures and introduce new measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to exceed Canada`s 2030 emissions reduction target and start working to enable Canada to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This indicator tracks Canada`s progress towards the 2030 target. Footnote 1 In fact, successive governments on both sides of the political divide have consistently missed the country`s climate goals, even as their country is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.
During this week`s campaign, Trudeau repeatedly said his Liberals had put Canada “on the right track” to achieve that goal and now promise to surpass it. Canada is the only G7 country where emissions have continued to rise since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. We are also the only G7 country whose emissions are still well above 1990 emission levels. Not to mention that our current goal under the Paris Agreement is completely inadequate and we need to at least double our current commitment under the Paris Agreement to move closer to Canada`s fair share in global efforts to fight climate change, according to Science and Justice. It is all well and good that we have these long-term goals that we are trying to achieve, and we have a plan that tries to get us there, but if we do not succeed in bending the curve and moving forward with emission reductions for the time being, then we will clearly not achieve the future targets. Prior to the pandemic, Canada was far from fulfilling its “inadequate” NDC under its current or planned policies. Although forecasts for 2030 are uncertain and likely to be weaker due to slower economic growth, the country may still not reach its NDC with the combined impact of current or planned policies and the pandemic. Much larger measures are needed to “surpass” the NDC as promised. The statement: “Canada is on track to reduce its emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2005.” Despite these headlines, however, Canada is currently not on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, which experts have in any case deemed insufficient to meet the target set by the Paris Agreement. After signing the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to support the goal of preventing global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. While Trudeau said during the campaign that the country is “on track” to meet its 2030 target, reports from his own administration show that even in the best-case scenario, total emissions in 2030 will be only 19 percent below 2005 levels.
In 2005, Canada emitted 730 megatonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gases, bringing its 2030 target to 511 Mt. Between 2005 and 2018 (the latest year for which statistics are available), Canada`s emissions decreased by only one megaton to 729 Mt (see Figure 1). How, then, will it reduce emissions by an additional 218 Mt by 2030 to meet its NDC commitments? Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, said Trudeau`s claim that we are on track to meet our 2030 goal is “misleading” until more details are known about the policies of a re-elected Liberal government. Meanwhile, pipelines have repeatedly faced legal challenges regarding their impact on Indigenous groups and emissions. A 2015 study found that 30% of known oil reserves must remain intact to meet the Paris target of warming well below 2°C, with Canada`s oil sands being particularly “non-combustible.” Finally, the model lacks endogenous technological change for the industrial and transport sectors. As a result, Canada`s energy, economic and emissions model is not well suited to model disruptive technological change. .
